The Sink or Swim Project

Today is the first day of the United Nation’s 29th Climate Summit known as the Conference of the Parties, or COP29 for short. This year’s event is being held in Baku, Azerbaijan and some 40,0000 delegates (less than 1/2 of the record attendance at COP28 in Dubai last year) from 197  nations are expected to discuss and debate the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that was first constructed in 1992 to create a global stage to address our climate crisis and discuss what mankind must collectively do together to solve this complex problem.

As in recent years, money will be atop everyone’s mind as the world discusses how to pay for the transition away from fossil fuels and to renewable energy that society is undertaking, but even more so during what some are calling the “Finance COP.” Priorities this year will include:

1. The New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG)

In 2009 the developed nations of the world agreed to set a goal of providing $100 billion per year by 2020 to help developing nations reduce emissions and to pay for the resilience projects that they need to protect themselves from the resulting damage our warming world causes, such as sea level rise. The phrase that United Nations’ members use for that goal is create what’s called a “New Collective Quantified Goal,” or NCQG for short.

That goal was not met until 2022 and it’s now clear that the annual amount, the $100 billion, is far too little money to address our growing climate crisis in developing nations. Estimates of how much money is needed each year vary greatly, as do the ways experts calculate such costs, but by any measure it’s a sizable amount and likely somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion per year. At COP29 negotiators will debate increasing the amount needed each year, the timeframe, distribution of funds, and review the formula to calculate the amount that’s needed annually.

2. The Loss and Damage Fund

And, speaking of finance topics, during last year’s COP28 meeting in Dubai member nations were able to agree to terms for a Loss & Damage fund for the first time in history, including having the World Bank overseeing the fund and creating an oversight Board that will guide how the Fund operates. The idea of the Loss & Damage Fund is that it intends to help vulnerable nations, countries that often produce little carbon emissions that are causing the climate crisis but are subjected to the impacts of our climate crisis, address their physical and social infrastructure needs so that they can have access to money for adaptation and resiliency projects. At this year’s COP, the nations of the world will need to consider increasing the amount of money that they are willing to commit to the Fund and related topics.

You can learn more about the Loss & Damage Fund in a post I wrote while in Egypt for COP27 in 2022 entitled Life Over Death here or a post I wrote from Dubai last year entitled Math & Science here.

3. Reviewing & Revising Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC’s)

In Paris in 2015, countries around the world agreed to update their climate commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), every five years and the next milestone for current data is in early 2025. Baku will be the last major meeting of the world’s nations before the new commitments are due to be published and, thus, COP29 is an ideal place to discuss and debate their plans and to ensure they are bold enough to align with the world’s agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as called for in the Paris Agreement. Is each country on track to meet its needed goals? Is society collectively on track? What adjustments need to be made to meet the goal?

4. Firm Commitments & Action Instead of Promises

“We made an agreement in Dubai to transition away from fossil fuels. The problem? We aren’t doing that. We’re not implementing. The implications for everybody, and life on this planet, is gigantic.”
John Kerry, Former US Secretary of State & US Climate Envoy

Last year’s conference ended a half day later than its scheduled conclusion as negotiators furiously tried to have countries agree to a final agreement that called for a formal transition that would ultimately “phase out” fossil fuels. Over half of the countries were in unison on that goal, that wording, but alas delegates disappointingly failed to agree to include any reference to either a “phase out” or a “phase down” of fossil fuels. You can read about those final overtime hours and the resulting agreement in a post I wrote entitled COP Out? The Dubai Document here.

Although the conference concluded without a phase out or down formal agreement, many nations made all sorts of commitments on a range of important steps including promises to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, improve food resiliency, increased renewable energy production, reduce carbon in transportation, reduce methane pollution, and so forth. This year in Baku it will be important to witness whether the world’s nations affirm their COP28 promises by turning them into actionable plans with published specific steps they intend to take, detailed timeframes, and anticipated measurable goals so their progress can actually be transparently monitored. It’s one thing to make a pie in the sky promise and a vastly different one to take real steps to make the type of change we need to see before we run out of time. COP29 will be an important window into the world’s real dedication, by country, over making and accelerating the transition to renewables.

5. The United States of America 2024 Presidential Election

When I began writing this post, I intended to only include the four priorities noted above but the topsy turvy nature of global climate politics now demands that I include a fifth: how will the recently concluded 2024 U.S. election impact COP29?  America’s soon to again be new President has campaigned on a promise to have the United States exit the Paris Agreement, as well as to unwind any number of sustainable policies designed to help address our country’s transition to renewables and perhaps dramatically increase oil production while embracing antiquated technologies such as natural gas and carbon dioxide emitting vehicles.

You will recall that following his election in 2016 he did, in fact, have America exit the Paris Agreement, a decision that was then reversed by President Biden after his election in 2020 when America rightfully returned to being a participant. Any loss of time towards reducing America’s greenhouse gas production, much less embracing a global leadership position on the topic that will define a generation’s time on earth, should concern every citizen in our country and that’s especially true considering that 2024 is very likely soon to be designated the hottest year on record, as well as the first to trend above the 1.5 degrees Celsius aspirational goal in the Paris Agreement.

During COP29 America’s forthcoming Administration’s plans will certainly be the talk of the conference, including their impact on the NDCs’ updated planning mentioned above. That’s especially so given that the United States is currently the world’s second largest producer of carbon pollution. While the point of this post is to outline key issues at this year’s COP, I will say that playing politics is counterproductive to progressing the transition that our country and world need if we are to ever solve our climate crisis yet it appears clear that, once again, America sadly plans to do just that by going backwards in time by prolonging the transition, diminishing our country’s opportunity to lead the world’s transition, while increasing American taxpayers’ costs and the pain people and communities all over our country will suffer by siding with the polluters instead of our environment.

I think it’s fair to say that the nations of the world are intently watching the United States in light of last week’s election, likely saying “here we go again,” and asking themselves “how will our global society ever solve our climate crisis if America once again takes a dramatic steps backwards at such a critical time in the fight for our future?” The conference, discussions, debates, meetings, and all else that’s taking place in Baku mean little without a committed United States and that is likely to be the most important story in the world, and certainly at COP29, over the next two weeks.